Core Theme 9

Sustainable Development Strategies

 

Contents

  • Introduction
  • General research strategy
  • Activity 9.1 Industrial and urban transformation
  • Activity 9.2 Coastal resource management
  • Activity 9.3 Agricultural intensification and expansion
  • Activity 9.4 Forest management and conservation of biodiversity
  • Activity 9.5 Integrated regional planning and management
  • Activity 9.6 Water resources
  • Activity 9.7 Transboundary atmospheric pollution
  • Activity 9.8 Energy resources and green house gas emissions
  • Activity 9.9 Human security
  • Expected outputs

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    Introduction


    This Core Theme is concerned with the environmental and human welfare implications of development strategies.  Building on the knowledge and understanding developed through the other parts of the Integrated Study, in particular the integration activities in Core Theme 8, it aims to contribute to critiques of current strategies and help formualte alternative strategies which would lead nations and the entire region along more sustainable development trajectories.  This process will entail bringing together more closely research (e.g. Turner 1997; Kates 1998) and policy agendas (Box 3.9.1) directed at global change and sustainable development issues in Southeast Asia (Figure 3.9.1).


    Development strategies arise from the interaction of institutions and actors operating at various scales.  They include policies, guidelines and laws of governments and business, as well as the activities of non-governmental organisations and local communities. Sustainable development here is taken in the broad sense as development that meets the needs of current generations without compromising the needs or options of future generations or neighbours (Box 3.9.1).  It thus has temporal (inter-generational), and spatial (trans-boundary) components.  Sustainable development, thus, is taken to be understood as development (qualitative improvement) without growth (quantitative expansion) beyond the capacity of the ecosystem (or landscape or region) to regenerate the raw materials extracted into the economy as inputs and to absorb the materials and energy discarded by the economy as waste.  A sustainable development strategy is seen as a set of institutions and activities which taken together would be likely to lead towards sustainable development.

    Figure 3.9.1
    Sustainability issues in Southeast Asia  (classification after Dovers and Handmer 1992).


     

     

    Box 3.9.1 Recent international negotiations on sustainable development.

    The Bruntland Commission (World Commission 1987), and then a few years later the United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development (UNCED) or the “Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, facilitated a number of important political processes that put sustainable development firmly on the international political agenda.  UNCED adopted Agenda 21, the Programme of Action for Sustainable Development, the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development (Box 3.9.2) and the Statement on Forest Principles (see CIESIN 1998 for details of environmental treaties).  Two conventions were also opened for signing, the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Convention on Biological Diversity.

    In July 1997, the United Nations General Assembly Special Session met to review the implementation of Agenda 21 five years after UNCED. Progress was made, for example, with the Convention to Combat Desertification, agreements on land-based sources of marine pollution and migratory fish stocks, and at the meeting the creation of a forum on forests.   In general, however, progress has been very slow as nations struggle to operationalize sustainable development.  There has also been understandable resistance to the top-down nature of international negotiations and a perception that the important short-term interests of developing countries will be compromised by the visions of countries that have already achieved high standards of livings.   In general, three outstanding problems remain: (i) how to finance sustainable development; (ii) how to transfer environmentally sound technologies to developing countries; and (iii) how to measure overall progress towards sustainable development.

    In Southeast Asia, as elsewhere, sustainable development is often taken to mean sustained economic growth.  A misconception propagated by the widespread use of gross national product – which measures mainly size of the economy – as a  measure of development (Constanza & Daly 1992). The need to assess the effectiveness of sustainable development strategies has resulted in widespread calls for the development of suitable indicators of sustainable development (see Activity 8.8).   The challenge for this Theme is to make the concept of sustainable development strategies operational.  Achieving a broad consensus on a specfic definition of sustainable development, however, is unlikely because the concept is a socially contested, constructed and negotiated principle.  Nevertheless, with proper attention to time and spatial scales (e.g. Fresco & Kroonberg 1992) it should be possible to develop useful working definitions for tackling specific development issues, for example, transboundary pollution (Box 3.9.3).


    Broadly speaking, there are three inter-related avenues for moving towards sustainable development strategies, namely, reforming institutions, changing human behaviour and practices, and technological change. A comprehensive policy response to current sustainability issues and strategic planning for sustainable development will need to cut across levels of governance (local, national, international, business vs. Government), traditional sectors (eg. energy, agriculture, forestry) and biomes (eg. coastal zones, urban/industrial centres, rural zones).    This requires a high level of integration of social, economic and ecological insights and understanding - the primary rationale for this Integated Study.

    To encourage this close interaction, the organisational structure for Core Theme 9 in this plan is different from the model (issues-strategy-outputs) applied to the previous components of the Integrated Study. There is a single strategy section for the entire theme (next section) and brief summaries of nine possible Activities. In the future, it may be appropriate to add others, for example, on population policy.

     

    Box 3.9.2 The first eight principles from The Rio Declaration on Environment and Development (1992).

    Principle 1
    Human beings are at the centre of concerns for sustainable development.  They are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature.

    Principle 2
    States have, in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and the principles of international law, the sovereign right to exploit their own resources pursuant to their own environmental and developmental policies, and the responsibility to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the environment of other States or of areas beyond the limits of national jurisdiction.

    Principle 3
    The right to development must be fulfilled so as to equitably meet developmental and environmental needs of present and future generations.

    Principle 4
    In order to achieve sustainable development, environmental protection shall constitute an integral part of the development process and cannot be considered in isolation from it.

    Principle 5
    All States and all people shall cooperate in the essential task of eradicating poverty as an indispensable requirement for sustainable development, in order to decrease the disparities in standards of living and better meet the needs of the majority of the people of the world.

    Principle 6
    The special situation and needs of developing countries, particularly the least developed and those most environmentally vulnerable, shall be given special priority.  International actions in the field of environment and development should also address the interests and needs of all countries.

    Principle 7
    States shall cooperate in a spirit of global partnership to conserve, protect and restore the health and integrity of the Earth’s ecosystem.  In view of the different contributions to global environmental degradation, States have common but differentiated responsibilities.  The developed countries acknowledge the responsibility that they bear in the international pursuit of sustainable development in view of the pressures their societies place on the global environment and of the technologies and financial resources they command.

    Principle 8
    To achieve sustainable development and a higher quality of life for all people, States should reduce and eliminate unsustainable patterns of production and consumption and promote appropriate demographic policies.
     From CIESIN (1998)

     

     

    General Research Strategy

    Assessment of development strategies will be taken at multiple scales, or levels of governance, from the Southeast Asian region through to individual nations and watersheds. The primary focus of this Theme, however, is to make assessments for the Southeast Asian as a whole. To do this the region-wide assessments will need to assess the cumulative impacts of development strategies at national and watershed (e.g. for the Mekong) scales using the knowledge gained from the other Core Themes of the Integrated Study, in particular, the synthesis and integration Activities in Core Theme 8.

    The region-wide assessments will be of direct value to regional institutions like ASEAN as well as providing input into global strategies.  The national scale analyses will draw on national planning documents and policy research. At the watershed scale the analysis will concentrate on the network of case studies developed in the other parts of the Integrated Study.  These will be particularly well suited to addressing questions of downstream impact. At this local scale it should also be possible to gain understanding and insights into the realities of the development process to contrast with the aims of local, national and regional planners.

    The focus of this Core Theme is therefore clearly on policy, and more specifically, on how improved understanding and information from research can inform the public policy process.

    Unlike other parts of the Integrated Study, the implementation of this Core Theme, will require the active involvement of policy, resource management and resource development communities.   A substantial effort will be required to ensure this participation.  A model strategy for analysis and then communicating the insights from these assessments in the Integrated Study is provided by the science-policy activity carried out by the Impacts Centre for Southeast Asia on transboundary haze pollution (IC-SEA 1998).  For this set of activities small working groups were recruited and commissioned to write reviews which were then presented for criticism and feedback by a wider group of peers in small joint meetings and electronic conferences.  In addition, opportunities were sought to present and give briefings at policy oriented meetings as the commissioned studies evolved so that there was an opportunity for better dialogue between science, resource management and policy communities.  Strategies like these are essential to improve the use of research-based knowledge, and conversely, to ensure the continuing practical relevance of the Integrated Study.

    To help conduct the overall assessments the Core Theme has been conceptually sub-divided into nine Activities (Table 3.9.1).  Two approaches are taken.  The first approach emphasises typical sectors of the economy, whereas the second highlights specific sustainability issues.  Thus, the first four activities assess the implications of development processes in what are typical landscape units and government sectors: urban/industrial, coastal, agriculture and forestry. This should take into account issues from each of the components of sustainability, namely: (i) resource depletion and degradation; (ii) pollution and waste; and (iii) society and human condition (Figure 3.9.1).  The fifth activity explicitly integrates across sectors considered in the previous four Activities by focussing on the spatial configuration of the different development processes.

    The next four activities take as their focus sustainability issues and should, therefore, integrate across sectors and the various associated development processes.  These focus on water resources, regional air quality, energy resources and greenhouse gas emissions and  human security (Table 3.9.1).

    In this Core Theme, unlike the eight previous themes, the individual Activities will only be described in a single brief section, focussing on (i) identifying the main sustainability issues in each Activity and (ii) how the Integrated Study can help the policy community at various levels address these issues.  The expected outputs of the Core Theme follow the descriptions of the individual activities (see page 117).

    Table 3.9.1
    Sustainability issues addressed by Activities in Core Theme 9.  The first five concentrate on the implications of development processes in traditional sectors of the economy and their distribution in space.  Activities 6 thru 9 take as their starting point specific sustainability issues and examine the contributions of various development processes.


     

    Box 3.9.3: Transboundary Harm and Sustainable Development

    One issue that must be addressed by both natural and social scientists participating in the Integrated Study is: How is sustainable development to be defined and applied by the researchers?  The purpose of the study is to assess the implications for sustainable development.  How can it do so unless there is an agreed definition of sustainable development, acceptable to policymakers applying the findings of the study?

    Finding a workable definition of sustainable development
    Compounding the problem of finding a workable definition of sustainable development for the purposes of Southeast Asian policymakers, and for the purposes of this study, are the critiques emanating from the social sciences. The most serious criticisms emanate from the legal profession.

    The legal perspective: as a matter of legal practice, the concept as it is defined by UNCED is unworkable. No court of law will stop a development from proceeding on the basis that it ‘might’ harm the environmental interests of ‘future generations’.  To prevent a development proceeding on the grounds that it cannot be sustained requires evidence that the development will cause irreparable harm to the environment and to the environmental interests of persons now living. A case cannot rest on potential harm to future beings.

    There is, however, an international legal norm that can provide a workable definition of sustainable development, the established principle of transboundary harm. That principle is: a person or nation may not use property in a manner that damages the property of a neighbouring person or nation. It was introduced into environmental law as Principle 21 of the Stockholm Declarationon the Environment (see CIESIN 1998).  Defining sustainable development by using the concept of transboundary harm has another, critical advantage. The UNCED definition is incorporated in a convention or treaty, and as a consequence will not prevail against later treaties.  To illustrate, this means that when the World Trade Organisation eventually comes into being attempts to stop non-sustainable developments will fail if they threaten free trade. Transboundary harm, however, is  customary international law, and as such will not be affected by different treaty regimes.

    Recommendation for a workable definition of sustainable development
    For the reasons given above, a definition of sustainable development based on the prevention of transboundary harm may be acceptable to Southeast Asian policy makers, for the desire to prevent transboundary harm permeates the regional Declaration on the ASEAN Environment.  That Southeast Asia comprises one environment is the foundation of that agreement, which emphasises that national activities have regional impacts.

    Defining sustainable development as development which does not cause irreparable local or transboundary harm surmounts the problem of each nation deciding what is sustainable according to its own interests. To use the example of the Mekong River Commission proposals to dam the river would be sustainable developments only if no irreparable harm was likely to be inflicted on downstream countries as a consequence of the dams.

    The concept also works effectively within national boundaries. For example, there is anxiety among the citizens of Jakarta that agricultural practices in the rural hinterland are responsible for the flooding of their city. If it transpires that this is the case, then it is reasonable to expect that the farmers modify their practices to minimise the causes of flooding in Jakarta.

    This definition is well suited for the Integrated Study, which will involve evaluating the impact of human activity from the rural hinterland to the coast. Transboundary harm operates on the same dimension, as it is concerned with the impact of the use of resources, not only in a particular region but also upon contiguous and downstream regions. Similarly, to comprehend the totality of human driving forces and their implications for sustainable development demands the analysis of both the localised and transboundary impacts of those forces.

    Sustainable development could thus be operationally defined as development that does not cause serious and irreparable local or transboundary harm to the environment.


    Box based on text and arguments provided by Merrilyn Wasson.

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    Activity 9.1 Industrialisation and Urbanisation


    Industrial and urban transformations that have accompanied economic growth are creating serious environmental pollution problems for cities and coastal seas (Core Theme 1). In addition, these centres of commercial activity and human enterprise are dependent on the extraction of resources (energy, water, forest products, food) from the surrounding land and oceans. The key issue is how to make a transition to a more industrialised and urbanised nation without destroying the resource base and maintaining an environment that will support human development.


    The Integrated Study can also contribute by raising awareness of national governments and regional organisations to the magnitude and significance of off-site impacts of development, in particular, through the analysis of ecological footprints of cities (Activity 1.3), including the drivers of  transboundary atmospheric (Activity 1.2) and marine pollution (Activity 1.1). Cities, as centres of commerce that compete in the international network of cities for trade and investment (Activity 3.1), also have impacts on land use in other countries (Activities 3.1 & 2.3).  The analysis of the evolution and current effectiveness of regional marine and atmospheric pollution agreements (Activities 3.3, 1.1, 1.2) should feed into regional policy process aimed at improving institutional effectiveness.

    The development of integrated models of land-use and -cover change  (Activity 8.5) should help improve planning of the spatial distribution and development in time of expanding urban and industrial centres as part of larger bioregions within countries (Activity 9.5).  Finally, regional models of global change feedbacks (Activity 8.7), by capturing the role of industries and resource consumption patterns, will help regional and global cooperative agreements aimed at improving the sustainability of industrial and urban transformations. These models should also be useful for analysing region-wide initiatives in promoting the transfer of energy efficient and clean technologies from other parts of the world into the Southeast Asian region.

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    Activity 9.2 Development of Fisheries and Coastal Resources

    The marine environment and its resources have for a long time been considered to be so exapansive as to offer an almost infinite capacity to accept materials disposed into it. The cumulative and interactive impacts of intense coastal land development for human settlement, aquaculture and heavy industry and the exploitation of fisheries and mangroves has put pressure on the coastal zone ecosystems and biodiversity.  In addition, shipping traffic, especially around the major ports like Singapore, continues to contribute increasing loads of pollution to coastal shelf seas.


    At both the regional and national scale the understanding provided by integrating results along the catchment cascade (Activity 8.3) will be particularly important in evaluating land use planning options aimed at preventing and reducing adverse impacts of land-based activities on the coastal zone.


    Apart from analysis of the land-to-coast cascade, this Activity will also synthesise the implications of human activities in the immediate vicinity of the coastal zone.  Such an analysis is well supported in the Integrated Study framework by studies on the cost of coastal marine pollution from industrialisation and urbanisation (Activities 1.1 and 1.3), resource degradation from over-exploitation of fisheries and aquaculture development (Activity 1.4), and detailed studies of biophysical processes in the coastal zone (Activity 5.2) and the impacts of climate variability (Activity 4.2).

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    Activity 9.3 Agricultural expansion and intensification

    As populations of Southeast Asia continue to grow, nations and the region will do their utmost to maintain food security.  Variable combinations of intensification of agriculture and further conversion of forested lands will take place throughout the region. Non-sustainable agricultural practices could lead to further land degradation and the prospects of environmental migration.  Natural climate variability is another source of large variation in agricultural production, especially in countries like Indonesia, which are heavily impacted by ENSO events. The challenge for agricultural scientists and landscape planners is to devise highly productive systems which are at the same time robust to environmental changes (Walker & Steffen 1997).  In addition, such systems will need to be socially acceptable and economically feasible. Sustainable intensification of agricultural systems thus may depend critically on maintaining local processes of innovation and adaptation (Pretty 1997).

    This Activity should, therefore, evaluate and refine strategies to improve the sustainability of agricultural systems, primarily at the national and bioregional scale.  Analyses should consider cross-sectorial impacts of strategies.  For example, for many of the countries in the region the impacts of rapid industrialisation and urbanisation (cf. Activity 9.1) on the rural sector economy will be important to take into account (e.g. Siamwalla 1996).

    The analysis of land-use intensity gradients (Activity 8.4), by synthesising the impacts of land-use changes on biogeochemical and hydrological cycles (Activities 5.1 & 6.1), together with understanding of the catchment cascade (Activity 8.3) and the development of integrated models of land-use change and its effects (Activity 8.5), provide some of the key research-based knowledge needed to improve agricultural land-use planning.

    At the national and Southeast Asian regional scale, analyses of the impacts of land-use changes on greenhouse-gas emissions (Activity 9.8) will be particular valuable to national governments involved in global climate change negotiations.
    Finally, improving agricultural sustainability will help countries in the region achieve food security (Activity 9.9) and conserve biodiversity in productive landscapes (Activity 9.5).

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    Activity 9.4 Forest management and the conservation of biodiversity

    The forest resources of tropical Southeast Asia are still an important source of revenue for some of the countries in the region, in particular, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia and Laos. Key issues in the sustainable management of tropical forests include illegal logging, non-sustainable harvesting practices, forest degradation, water shed protection, conservation of biodiversity, impacts of future climate and atmospheric change, and the implications of forest clearing on carbon storage and greenhouse gas emissions.


    As a result of a variety of, but mostly local, sustainability problems, almost all of the countries in the region have at some time or other in the recent past brought into place legislation banning logging, withdrawing concession rights or halting the export of timber.  Thus, illustrates the concern at the national level of the need for improved forest management strategies. The objective of this Activity is to assess the sustainability of current forest management practices in the region (e.g. Kumari 1996; Kuusipalo et al.1997; Bawa & Seidler 1998).

    The Integrated Study can contribute to improving the sustainability of forest management at a number of levels.  At the scale of forest ecosystems process studies on the effects of natural disturbance, such as fire (Activity 5.3), and human activities on vegetation dynamics (Activity 6.2) as well as on  biogeochemical cycles (Activity 5.1, Activity 8.4), will help improve on-site management of the production of natural forests and plantations.  At the landscape scale where a mixture of land covers is present and agricultural activities are intensifying or leading to land abandonment (Core Theme 2), models will play a vital role in examining future patterns in land cover (Activity 2.4) and the implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services (Activity 8.5).  At the landscape scale and higher, understanding of institutional factors become more important, in particular, property rights systems ( Activity 3.2) as well as other off-site drivers of change (Activity 2.3).

    The Integrated Study should also contribute to international forestry policy and co-operation with respect to  conservation (Activities 3.3, 9.9),  trade (Activity 3.1) and greenhouse gas emissions (Activity 8.7).

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    Activity 9.5 Integrated regional planning and management

    Increasing agricultural production, maintaining ecosystem services and goods (e.g. of clean water) and the conservation of tropical rainforests are policy and management goals for many Southeast Asian landscapes (see Box 3.9.3).  The problem is how to conserve biodiversity and maintain essential ecosystem functions in tropical landscapes given the expected growth in needs for food, fibre, water and energy into the middle of the next century.  Maintaining biological diversity depends on the spatial arrangement and complexity of land-use systems on the landscape: fragmentation patterns and the sizes of remaining habitat elements are clearly related to the risk of extinction.  The spatial arrangement of land-cover elements and the consequent impacts on biodiversity also have implications for ecosystem functioning, and hence the goods and services that human societies depend upon (eg. provision of fresh water, retention of nutrients, flood control).   In addition, the ways in which natural disturbances like fires, pests and diseases propagate through a heterogeneous landscape clearly depends on its structure and biological diversity.


    A change in the mixture of land-uses and covers also has important implications for greenhouse gas emissions.  Many interest groups and policy objectives influence land and resource development.  A framework for seeking best-bet development options would thus be extremely valuable in supporting the process of land-use planning.  Such a framework will need to take into account many stakeholders, from small-scale farmers seeking livelihoods, larger-scale agri-businesses interested in maximizing medium-term profits and an international community interested in public goods and services from forests (e.g. Tomich et al. 1998). Techniques to explore non-market values for the impacts of environmental policy changes will often be needed.  In some situations contingent valuation methods that explore the willingness-to-pay of various stakeholders within an overall welfare change framework may be appropriate (e.g. Tolley & Fabian 1998; Berrens et al. 1998).

    This Activity aims to assess how well current development strategies integrate the various sectors of the economy in a region.  In particular, in finding the appropriate mix and configuration of land-use systems that balance the needs to conserve biodiversity, increase production of food and fibre, and maintain essential ecosystem services that promote human security (Activity 9.9).

     

    Box 3.9.4 Paradigm Solutions to the Integration Challenge of Conserving Biodiversity in
    Production Landscapes.

    Numerous strategies have been proposed and are being tried, in Southeast Asia and elsewhere in the tropics, to solve the “integration problem”. At their extremes they can be characterised by the way they treat natural biodiversity: isolate, use or incorporate.


    The isolate paradigm, modelled on the National Park System of developed nations, is to create protected area systems where the primary management goal is conservation.  In more sophisticated versions attention is also paid to managing the matrix through buffer zones and the creation of habitat corridors to link areas.

    The use paradigm is broad, ranging from logging native stands, through collecting fuel wood and non-timber products, to bio-prospecting for new pharmaceuticals or agricultural genes (e.g. Janzen 1992).  Some schemes focus on a key natural resource, such as water or timber, and aim to integrate (or compromise) the uses of that resource.

    The incorporate paradigm is similar in that biodiversity is used, but it takes complex agro-ecosystems, perhaps in landscapes transformed by human actions for centuries, as its starting point, and looks for ways to increase biodiversity, through maintenance and re-introduction of useful species in agricultural production areas (e.g. Ramakrishnan 1995). Management changes aimed at increasing production and profits, however, often lead to decreases in biodiversity (van Noordwijk et al. 1997).

    Thus, in the isolate and use paradigms, natural biodiversity is segregated in space from mainstream agricultural production, whereas in the incorporate paradigm they are integrated at fine scales.  In deciding where policies should lie in this use-incorporate-isolate space, a series of generic questions arise:
    1. Should different land uses be integrated or segregated in space?
    2. Should the overall intensity of land management be increased?
    3. Which combination of land uses should be promoted in the various land cover units?
    4. Should specialisation or diversification of land uses be promoted?

    In most places integration is not being achieved underlining the need for improved policy and resource management responses.  On the one hand this implies a need for better application of existing research-based knowledge and inter-institutional cooperation. On the other hand, it requires a better appreciation of the policy process by researchers.  At a more fundamental level there is also a need to improve understanding of the relationship between ecological complexity, landscape structure and ecosystem functioning.

     

     

     
     

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    Activity 9.6 Water Resources


    Urbanisation and growth of large cities in Southeast Asia will make huge demands for infrastructure, especially for water and sanitation services (Activity 1.3).  Unfortunately water resource projects are often plagued with problems in planning and implementation.  There are many institutional issues which hinder integrated water resource management.  In particular, the trade-offs between rent seeking, equity and health are rarely considered  (Brookshire & Whittington 1993).  In 1990 for the Asia-Pacific region approximately 77% of urban and 67% of rural populations had access to clean water supply (Munasinghe 1992).


    In addition to the growing demand of water resources for domestic consumption, there is a continuing growth in demand for water resources, by industry for processing and agriculture for irrigation, and for hydro-electricity. An emerging transboundary issue is the impact of hydroelectric schemes in the Mekong on downstream regions, the seasonal flooding of Thonle Sap in Cambodia, and salt-water intrusions in the delta in southern Vietnam.

    The Integrated Study, having as its basis catchments as a key organising concept for the selection of sites and integration from uplands to coast (Activity 8.3), will be able to make a substantial contribution to developing strategies for the sustainable use of water resources within and between nations.  To do this effectively will require integrating scenarios of climate variability and change (Core Theme 4) and projections of land-use and -cover change (Activity 8.5), and broader futures scenarios (Activity 8.7) with large-scale hydrological models (Activity 8.3).  Analysis of development options under these scenarios will also benefit from the improved understanding of the role of systems of water rights (Activity 3.2) and technological change (Core Theme 1 and 2) on water resources. Comparative studies of socio-economic development with the structure of water use are also likely to be useful.  For example, evidence from cross-country regressions suggests that water use first increases then declines with income per capita after adjusting for the effects of changes in population, water efficiency in agriculture, openess of trade policy, and irrigation intensity of GDP (Rock 1997).

    Together with strategies for the agriculture and forest sectors, the results of this Activity on water resources should contribute to developing integrated land management strategies (cf. Activity 9.5) at the landscape and bioregional scale. Finally, the analysis of regional cooperation and institutions (cf. Activity 3.1 and 3.3) in the Mekong Basin will contribute to overall strategies for improving human security in the Southeast Asian region (cf. Activity 9.9).

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    Activity 9.7 Regional air quality

    Transboundary atmospheric pollution from vegetation fires is a recurrent politcal issue in the Southeast Asia region (e.g. ASEAN 1995; Goldammer 1998). For example, in mid-1997 and early 1998 vast areas of Sumatra and Kalimantan in Indonesia, and to a lesser extent in neighbouring islands and countries, were burnt.  The prevailing dry ENSO phase made conditions ideal for the use of fire to clear land for agricultural development and also for the unintentional spread of fires into surrounding forests (Activity 5.3).    The cumulative effect of many fire sources was compounded by atmospheric conditions that led to the concentration and transport of smoke into neighbouring countries (eg. Tomich et al. 1997; IC-SEA 1998; Goldammer 1998) exacerbating already poor air-quality in some urban and industrial centres (Activity 1.2).  The negative impacts of the fire and haze within Indonesia were substantial, particularly, on human health, biodiversity conservation efforts, and economic losses in tourism and forestry sectors.  The impacts of haze were also significant in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.

    An on-going integrated assessment of the transboundary haze problem (see IC-SEA 1998) points to the underlying complexity of causes (Figure 3.9.2) and the cascade of policy issues in an effective response.  At the local and national level the over-arching issue is land-use planning in management. In turn this can be seen as a cascade of related sub-issues:
    (1)  the appropriateness of government targets for the conversion of forests into oil palm and timber plantations; (2) the fairness of the process by which land-use rights are aquired and maintained; (3) the presence of incentive systems (e.g. taxes, tariffs, subsidies) that encourage production of large amounts of wastes which are then burnt; (4) improving fire management itself, for example, by regulating when land clearing permits are implemented.

    At the regional level a key issue is whether the cooperative model favoured by ASEAN is adequate to prevent another recurrence of a serious haze episode or whether a stronger deterrent is needed, for example, the threat of cross-boundary litigation (Activity 3.3).  At the global level the key issues of concern include irreversible losses of biodiversity resulting from forest conversion and the impacts of land clearing and fire emissions on the earth’s atmosphere.

    With this hierarchy of policy issues, interacting institutions, and a large set of actors with their own agendas and interests, there is a clear need to develop a coherent policy framework to address the transboundary haze and fire problem.  Such a framework must acknowledge the role of international pressure as well as domestic policy reform.

    This Activity should seek to build on the on-going assessment work of the Impacts Centre for Southeast Asia and its many partners.  The principle goal should be to complete a functional policy framework and communicate this widely in the region.  A successful process for resolving the transboundary haze pollution problem may become a useful model to tackle some of the other shared transboundary environmental problems.

    Figure 3.9.2
    Conceptual diagram showing some of the major pathways of influence on the cascade of issues resulting in haze from land-use planning through to waste wood management practices.

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    Activity 9.8 Energy Resources and Greenhouse Gas Emissions


    Energy policies are an important driving force of environmental change and development.  In the 1980s oil comprised more than 86% of ASEAN’s primary energy source, but by 1992 oil was less than 70%, with coal 7.8% and natural gas 17.4% (ASEAN 1997).   ASEAN has been a net exporter of energy but the ratio of indigenous energy production to total primary energy consumption has been declining over the past ten years because of rapid increase in energy consumption. Between 1980-1992 hydropower generation increased on average at 13% annually and in 1992 hydropower contributed to about 15% of electricity in ASEAN (ibid). Most electricity, however, is generated from fuel oil, which has a high carbon emission rate.


    In rural areas biomass is still the most important source of energy. Production of fuelwood and charcaols, largely from natural forests, increased by 27% between 1979 to 1992 in ASEAN. In Thailand and Indonesia crop residues are also important sources of biomass energy. However, fossil fuels are likely to remain an important source of energy in the near future with biomass the major source of traditional fuels.

    The industry and transport sectors each accounts for about a third of total energy consumption in ASEAN (ASEAN 1997).  Industry’s share is likely to continue to increase with rapid economic growth.

    This Activity will examine the long-term sustainability of current energy-resource policies, with special attention to atmospheric pollution (Activity 1.2) and greenhouse-gas emissions (Activity 8.6), as well as degradation of non-renewable resources. As the patterns of energy use are still very different between industrial, urban settlements (Activity 9.1) and rural areas (Activity 9.3), this Activity will need to assess strategies for the different sectors separately, but without neglecting the ecological footprint of cities (Activity 1.3).

    In cities, consideration should be given to strategies for changing behaviour and practices of domestic and industrial consumers, as well as the potential role of new clean and energy efficient technologies (Core Theme 1).  Effort should be particularly directed towards win-win strategies that will be economically beneficial as well as contribute to environmental improvement, for example, in reducing regional aerosol pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions.
    In rural areas, the emphasis will be on balanced assessments of the cost-effectiveness of changes in land-use practices that affect energy and biomass consumption, while meeting needs to improve human welfare.  Particular attention should be paid to enhancing traditional and local options where they already make better use of limited resources than imported technologies. To this end the role of business investment and trade institutions (Activity 3.1), should be carefully scrutinised for both threats and opportunities.

    At the national and Southeast Asian regional scale, regional models of global feedbacks (Activity 8.7) and futures scenarios (Activity 8.8) will help integrate across the rural, urban and industrial sectors to assess the impacts of energy policies on regional atmospheric pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions. Integrated scenarios from these analyses should be made available to national governments, regional organisations and the public policy process as it negotiates agreements on regional atmospheric pollution and global change.

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    Activity 9.9 Human Security

    The purpose of development is the improvement of the quality of life and human security.   Rapid environmental change, through depletion or degradation of resources such as food and water, can threaten human security, and can lead in special circumstances, to migration. Human security, therefore, should be a key component of all sustainable development strategies.

    Three aspects of human security that are intimately linked to environmental change in Southeast Asia are: food security, resource security and human health. This Activity aims to examine how, under continuing rapid environmental change, the region as a whole, individual nations, and in particular, vulnerable populations, will deal with issues of food and resource security and how these may influence human health and welfare.

    The Integrated Study can make a major contribution to studies of human security and vulnerability by drawing together analyses undertaken in the various Activities to make a more comprehensive synthesis of the impacts of development on access to, and quality of, natural resources. Food security, for example, depends not only on the capabilities of agriculture (Activity 9.3) and fisheries ( Activity 9.2) to sustain yields, but also on international trade (Activity 3.1) and reliability of access to land and water resources (Activities 3.2, 9.5 and 9.6). International relations, for example, can enhance or erode a nation’s food security, especially in times of extreme climatic events (Core Theme 4) or political conflict.
    The sustainable management of key resources has been analysed elsewhere in this integrated study, for example, for coastal fisheries (Activity 9.2), forest products (Activity 9.4) and water (Activity 9.6). These analyses of resource systems need to be drawn together for specific catchments, bioregions and nations to assess vulnerability of their populations to further regional and global environmental change.

    Environmental quality is an important determinant of human health.  In the WHO Report on Health and Environment on Sustainable Development claims that around 25% of all preventable ill health in the world is a result of poor environmental quality — diarrhoeal diseases and respiratory diseases head the list (WHO 1997). Key factors are lack of sanitation, poor water supply, poor food safety, air pollution and poor housing. In Southeast Asia, exposure to atmospheric and water-borne pollution from industrial activity and land conversion poses additional threats to public health.  The understanding of the drivers of industrialisation and urbanisation and their impacts (Core Theme 1 and Activity 8.2) should contribute to regional efforts to harmonise regional environmental standards for industrial practices and raise awareness of the need to control key processes in transformation, through regulation, changes in behaviour and practices, and incentives for adopting cleaner technologies (Activities 1.1 & 1.2).

    Together these analyses of development strategies from the point of view of human security should, in turn, feed into the next Activity on improved regional planning and management.

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    Expected Outputs for Core Theme 9

    The resolution of sustainability issues is beyond the scope of Core Theme 9 and the Integrated Study, being ultimately a political matter.  However, the integrated assessments carried out as part of this Core Theme can be expected to:
    1.  Draw attention to clearly non-sustainable practices and trends;
    2.  Suggest alternative development trajectories, for example, in terms of overall structure of the economy or land uses.
    3.  Suggest changes in behaviour, institutions or technologies and the policy instruments (see Table 3.9.2) to bring about desired changes.
    4.  Stimulate dialogue between the research, policy and wider community on the interactions between alternative regional development trajectories and global change.

    Table 3.9.2
    Policy instruments for environmental management and sustainability (After Dovers 1995).


     

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